Brighton & Hove Albion FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Brighton & Hove Albion FC 74.5% · Draw 18.4% · Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 7.2% Why Brighton & Hove Albion FC is favoured Brighton & Hove Albion FC's Elo (1594) is +255 over Wolverhampton Wanderers FC (1339); high confidence. Recent: Brighton & Hove Albion FC 6W-1D-3L · Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 2W-4D-4L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Brighton & Hove Albion FC +0.6, Wolverhampton Wanderers FC -0.6. Form depth Brighton & Hove Albion FC: avg 1.5 goals scored, 0.9 conceded per game (3/4 at home, 3/6 on the road). Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: avg 0.9 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.4 total goals (Brighton & Hove Albion FC 1.5, Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 0.9) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — Brighton & Hove Albion FC 0W, 3D, Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-1, 0-2, 2-2.