Sunderland AFC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Sunderland AFC 33.1% · Draw 23.3% · Manchester United FC 43.5% Why Manchester United FC is favoured Manchester United FC's Elo (1612) is +88 over Sunderland AFC (1524); high confidence. Recent: Sunderland AFC 3W-2D-5L · Manchester United FC 6W-2D-2L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Sunderland AFC -0.7, Manchester United FC +0.5. Form depth Sunderland AFC: avg 1.0 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (1/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). Manchester United FC: avg 1.7 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (4/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). Manchester United FC on a 3-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.8 total goals (Sunderland AFC 1.1, Manchester United FC 1.7) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Sunderland AFC 0W, 1D, Manchester United FC 0W (draws are common). Last 1: 2-0.