Sparta Rotterdam scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Sparta Rotterdam 47.3% · Draw 25.7% · SBV Excelsior 27.0% Why Sparta Rotterdam is favoured SBV Excelsior's Elo (1510) is +10 over Sparta Rotterdam (1500); low confidence. Recent: Sparta Rotterdam 1W-3D-6L · SBV Excelsior 2W-3D-5L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Sparta Rotterdam -1.4, SBV Excelsior +0.0. Form depth Sparta Rotterdam: avg 0.8 goals scored, 2.2 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 0/6 on the road). SBV Excelsior: avg 1.5 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (1/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.0 total goals (Sparta Rotterdam 1.1, SBV Excelsior 1.9) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Sparta Rotterdam 0W, 1D, SBV Excelsior 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-1, 4-2, 2-1. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.