US Cremonese scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities US Cremonese 18.0% · Draw 19.7% · Como 1907 62.3% Why Como 1907 is favoured Como 1907's Elo (1637) is +211 over US Cremonese (1426); high confidence. Recent: US Cremonese 3W-1D-6L · Como 1907 6W-2D-2L (last 10). Goal differential per game: US Cremonese -0.5, Como 1907 +0.9. Form depth US Cremonese: avg 1.0 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (1/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). Como 1907: avg 1.7 goals scored, 0.8 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 3/5 on the road). US Cremonese on a 2-match winning streak. Como 1907 on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.5 total goals (US Cremonese 0.9, Como 1907 1.6) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — US Cremonese 0W, 2D, Como 1907 0W (draws are common). Last 1: 1-1.