SSC Napoli scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities SSC Napoli 67.8% · Draw 21.2% · Udinese Calcio 11.0% Why SSC Napoli is favoured SSC Napoli's Elo (1626) is +160 over Udinese Calcio (1465); high confidence. Recent: SSC Napoli 6W-2D-2L · Udinese Calcio 4W-3D-3L (last 10). Goal differential per game: SSC Napoli +0.8, Udinese Calcio +0.6. Form depth SSC Napoli: avg 1.6 goals scored, 0.8 conceded per game (4/6 at home, 2/4 on the road). Udinese Calcio: avg 1.4 goals scored, 0.8 conceded per game (1/5 at home, 3/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.3 total goals (SSC Napoli 1.2, Udinese Calcio 1.1) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — SSC Napoli 0W, 3D, Udinese Calcio 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-0, 1-1, 1-3.