AC Milan scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities AC Milan 67.2% · Draw 21.3% · Cagliari Calcio 11.5% Why AC Milan is favoured AC Milan's Elo (1611) is +155 over Cagliari Calcio (1456); high confidence. Recent: AC Milan 4W-1D-5L · Cagliari Calcio 3W-1D-6L (last 10). Goal differential per game: AC Milan -0.4, Cagliari Calcio -0.7. Form depth AC Milan: avg 0.9 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). Cagliari Calcio: avg 0.9 goals scored, 1.6 conceded per game (3/6 at home, 0/4 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.4 total goals (AC Milan 1.3, Cagliari Calcio 1.1) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — AC Milan 0W, 3D, Cagliari Calcio 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-1, 1-1, 3-3.