Juventus FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Juventus FC 70.0% · Draw 20.3% · ACF Fiorentina 9.7% Why Juventus FC is favoured Juventus FC's Elo (1659) is +190 over ACF Fiorentina (1468); high confidence. Recent: Juventus FC 6W-4D-0L · ACF Fiorentina 3W-5D-2L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Juventus FC +1.1, ACF Fiorentina -0.2. Form depth Juventus FC: avg 1.6 goals scored, 0.5 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 3/5 on the road). ACF Fiorentina: avg 0.8 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (1/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.0 total goals (Juventus FC 1.3, ACF Fiorentina 0.7) — below 2.5. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — Juventus FC 0W, 3D, ACF Fiorentina 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-1, 3-0, 2-2.