Sport Lisboa e Benfica scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Sport Lisboa e Benfica 54.5% · Draw 24.2% · GD Estoril Praia 21.4% Why Sport Lisboa e Benfica is favoured Sport Lisboa e Benfica's Elo (1560) is +104 over GD Estoril Praia (1457); low confidence. Recent: Sport Lisboa e Benfica 1W-1D-0L · GD Estoril Praia 0W-1D-2L (last 3). Goal differential per game: Sport Lisboa e Benfica +3.5, GD Estoril Praia -1.3. Form depth Sport Lisboa e Benfica: avg 4.5 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 1/1 on the road). GD Estoril Praia: avg 0.3 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 0/1 on the road). GD Estoril Praia on a 2-match losing streak. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (30%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 62.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 54.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context GD Estoril Praia has 2 more days of rest (Sport Lisboa e Benfica 21d, GD Estoril Praia 23d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (30% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.