GD Estoril Praia scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities GD Estoril Praia 45.3% · Draw 29.5% · Rio Ave FC 25.2% Why GD Estoril Praia is favoured Elo essentially level (1472 vs 1462) — winner depends on context. Recent: GD Estoril Praia 0W-1D-1L · Rio Ave FC 0W-0D-2L (last 2). Goal differential per game: GD Estoril Praia -1.0, Rio Ave FC -1.5. Form depth GD Estoril Praia: avg 0.5 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/1 on the road). Rio Ave FC: avg 0.0 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/1 on the road). Rio Ave FC on a 2-match losing streak. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (25%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — GD Estoril Praia 0W, 3D, Rio Ave FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-2, 0-4, 2-1. Calibration Raw model: 51.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 45.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context GD Estoril Praia has 2 more days of rest (GD Estoril Praia 14d, Rio Ave FC 12d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (25% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.