Sporting Clube de Portugal scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Sporting Clube de Portugal 59.6% · Draw 20.9% · Vitória SC 19.4% Why Sporting Clube de Portugal is favoured Sporting Clube de Portugal's Elo (1613) is +164 over Vitória SC (1450); low confidence. Recent: Sporting Clube de Portugal 0W-1D-0L · Vitória SC 0W-0D-1L (last 1). Goal differential per game: Sporting Clube de Portugal +0.0, Vitória SC -1.0. Form depth Sporting Clube de Portugal: avg 2.0 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (0/1 on the road). Vitória SC: avg 0.0 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home). But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (20%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Sporting Clube de Portugal 0W, 1D, Vitória SC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 5-1, 1-4, 2-0. Calibration Raw model: 68.2% home · Platt-calibrated down to 59.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Vitória SC has 1 more day of rest (Sporting Clube de Portugal 5d, Vitória SC 6d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (20% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.