Gil Vicente FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Gil Vicente FC 42.1% · Draw 30.8% · Rio Ave FC 27.1% Why Gil Vicente FC is favoured Rio Ave FC's Elo (1486) is +14 over Gil Vicente FC (1472); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 6 prior meetings — Gil Vicente FC 0W, 6D, Rio Ave FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-0, 2-2, 1-1. Calibration Raw model: 46.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 42.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.