Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · RC Deportivo La Coruña
To win
+$23.80
Total payout
$43.80
Joint prob
60.3%
Combined odds
2.19
Fair odds
1.66
Edge
+32.0%
Expected value: +$6.40 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$6.40 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.32 on a $20 stake.
Joint prob 9% lower than naïve — books overprice this kind of pair.
Expected value: +$15.81 on a $20 stake.
Independence-assumption math. Same-match legs are correlated — the true joint can be higher OR lower than the product. Apply judgment before taking it.
Expected value: +$12.33 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
RC Deportivo La Coruña scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 60.3% · fair market: 44.2% · edge: +36.4%
Model probabilities RC Deportivo La Coruña 60.3% · Draw 21.5% · CA Osasuna 18.2% Why RC Deportivo La Coruña is favoured RC Deportivo La Coruña's Elo (1513) is +76 over CA Osasuna (1437); medium confidence. Recent: RC Deportivo La Coruña 2W-5D-3L · CA Osasuna 3W-2D-5L (last 10). Goal differential per game: RC Deportivo La Coruña +0.0, CA Osasuna -1.0. Form depth RC Deportivo La Coruña: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (1/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). CA Osasuna: avg 1.0 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.8 total goals (RC Deportivo La Coruña 1.6, CA Osasuna 1.1) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — RC Deportivo La Coruña 0W, 3D, CA Osasuna 0W (draws are common). +EV vs market home: model 60.3% vs market 44.2% (edge +36.4%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (40% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.