RC Deportivo La Coruña scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities RC Deportivo La Coruña 57.9% · Draw 22.1% · Levante UD 20.0% Why RC Deportivo La Coruña is favoured RC Deportivo La Coruña's Elo (1515) is +61 over Levante UD (1454); low confidence. Recent: RC Deportivo La Coruña 2W-4D-2L · Levante UD 1W-3D-3L (last 8). Goal differential per game: RC Deportivo La Coruña +0.1, Levante UD -0.6. Form depth RC Deportivo La Coruña: avg 1.5 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 1/4 on the road). Levante UD: avg 1.6 goals scored, 2.1 conceded per game (1/3 at home, 0/4 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.3 total goals (RC Deportivo La Coruña 1.8, Levante UD 1.5) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — RC Deportivo La Coruña 0W, 4D, Levante UD 0W (draws are common). Context Levante UD has 1 more day of rest (RC Deportivo La Coruña 59d, Levante UD 60d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (35% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.