Elche CF scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Elche CF 39.9% · Draw 23.3% · RC Celta de Vigo 36.8% Why Elche CF is favoured RC Celta de Vigo's Elo (1511) is +56 over Elche CF (1455); high confidence. Recent: Elche CF 1W-2D-4L · RC Celta de Vigo 1W-4D-2L (last 7). Goal differential per game: Elche CF -0.9, RC Celta de Vigo +0.3. Form depth Elche CF: avg 1.6 goals scored, 2.4 conceded per game (0/3 at home, 1/4 on the road). RC Celta de Vigo: avg 1.1 goals scored, 0.9 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 0/3 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.0 total goals (Elche CF 1.2, RC Celta de Vigo 1.8) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Elche CF 0W, 2D, RC Celta de Vigo 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 3-1, 2-1, 1-0. Calibration Raw model: 41.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 39.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Elche CF has 5 more days of rest (Elche CF 54d, RC Celta de Vigo 49d).