Getafe CF scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Getafe CF 36.4% · Draw 26.4% · RC Deportivo La Coruña 37.2% Why RC Deportivo La Coruña is favoured RC Deportivo La Coruña's Elo (1526) is +95 over Getafe CF (1431); low confidence. Recent: Getafe CF 1W-1D-2L · RC Deportivo La Coruña 2W-2D-0L (last 4). Goal differential per game: Getafe CF -0.8, RC Deportivo La Coruña +0.8. Form depth Getafe CF: avg 0.5 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 0/2 on the road). RC Deportivo La Coruña: avg 2.0 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 1/2 on the road). RC Deportivo La Coruña on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.5 total goals (Getafe CF 0.9, RC Deportivo La Coruña 1.6) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (20%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — Getafe CF 0W, 3D, RC Deportivo La Coruña 0W (draws are common). Calibration Raw model: 33.4% home · Platt-calibrated up to 36.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Getafe CF has 2 more days of rest (Getafe CF 28d, RC Deportivo La Coruña 26d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (20% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.