CA Osasuna scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities CA Osasuna 46.0% · Draw 28.4% · Getafe CF 25.6% Why CA Osasuna is favoured CA Osasuna's Elo (1469) is +32 over Getafe CF (1437); high confidence. Recent: CA Osasuna 1W-1D-0L · Getafe CF 1W-0D-1L (last 2). Goal differential per game: CA Osasuna +0.5, Getafe CF -1.0. Form depth CA Osasuna: avg 1.0 goals scored, 0.5 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 1/1 on the road). Getafe CF: avg 0.5 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (1/1 at home, 0/1 on the road). Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — CA Osasuna 0W, 2D, Getafe CF 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-0, 2-1, 1-2. Calibration Raw model: 52.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 46.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Getafe CF has 9 more days of rest (CA Osasuna 6d, Getafe CF 15d).