RC Deportivo La Coruña scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities RC Deportivo La Coruña 44.9% · Draw 29.8% · Valencia CF 25.3% Why RC Deportivo La Coruña is favoured Elo essentially level (1499 vs 1496) — winner depends on context. Recent: RC Deportivo La Coruña 0W-2D-0L · Valencia CF 0W-1D-1L (last 2). Goal differential per game: RC Deportivo La Coruña +0.0, Valencia CF -0.5. Form depth RC Deportivo La Coruña: avg 1.0 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/1 on the road). Valencia CF: avg 0.0 goals scored, 0.5 conceded per game (0/2 at home). RC Deportivo La Coruña on a 2-draw streak. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — RC Deportivo La Coruña 0W, 4D, Valencia CF 0W (draws are common). Calibration Raw model: 51.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 44.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context RC Deportivo La Coruña has 5 more days of rest (RC Deportivo La Coruña 12d, Valencia CF 7d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.