CA Osasuna scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities CA Osasuna 44.1% · Draw 29.8% · Levante UD 26.1% Why CA Osasuna is favoured Elo essentially level (1456 vs 1463) — winner depends on context. Recent: CA Osasuna no recent form on file · Levante UD 0W-0D-1L (last 1). Form depth Levante UD: avg 0.0 goals scored, 3.0 conceded per game (0/1 on the road). Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — CA Osasuna 0W, 2D, Levante UD 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 3-2, 2-0, 3-1. Calibration Raw model: 49.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 44.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.