Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
vs Deportivo Alavés_

Most likely scorelines

• 0–4MODE+Save pick

  Prob

  18.6%

  Fair odds

  5.39

• 0–3+Save pick

  Prob

  17.1%

  Fair odds

  5.86

• 0–5+Save pick

  Prob

  16.1%

  Fair odds

  6.20

• 0–2+Save pick

  Prob

  11.8%

  Fair odds

  8.50

• 0–6+Save pick

  Prob

  11.7%

  Fair odds

  8.55

• 0–1+Save pick

  Prob

  5.4%

  Fair odds

  18.49

• 1–4+Save pick

  Prob

  3.7%

  Fair odds

  26.95

• 1–3+Save pick

  Prob

  3.4%

  Fair odds

  29.31

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.

Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.

Correlation-aware combos

• Home win + BTTS

  home + btts

  +83%

  Joint prob

  0.1%

  Naïve (book)

  0.1%

  Fair odds

  748.97

• Home win + Over 2.5

  home + total_goals_2.5

  -60%

  Joint prob

  0.1%

  Naïve (book)

  0.3%

  Fair odds

  739.32

• Away win + BTTS

  away + btts

  -6%

  Joint prob

  16.4%

  Naïve (book)

  17.4%

  Fair odds

  6.11

• Away win + Over 2.5

  away + total_goals_2.5

  -1%

  Joint prob

  79.8%

  Naïve (book)

  80.7%

  Fair odds

  1.25

Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.