RC Celta de Vigo scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities RC Celta de Vigo 52.1% · Draw 25.1% · CA Osasuna 22.9% Why RC Celta de Vigo is favoured RC Celta de Vigo's Elo (1546) is +89 over CA Osasuna (1457); high confidence. Recent: RC Celta de Vigo 0W-1D-0L · CA Osasuna 0W-1D-0L (last 1). Goal differential per game: RC Celta de Vigo +0.0, CA Osasuna +0.0. Form depth RC Celta de Vigo: avg 0.0 goals scored, 0.0 conceded per game (0/1 on the road). CA Osasuna: avg 0.0 goals scored, 0.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home). Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — RC Celta de Vigo 0W, 2D, CA Osasuna 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-2, 2-3, 1-0. Calibration Raw model: 59.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 52.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context RC Celta de Vigo has 2 more days of rest (RC Celta de Vigo 5d, CA Osasuna 3d).