Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · RC Deportivo La Coruña
To win
+$24.40
Total payout
$44.40
Joint prob
46.3%
Combined odds
2.22
Fair odds
2.16
Edge
+2.9%
Expected value: +$0.57 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.57 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$5.91 on a $20 stake.
Joint prob 10% lower than naïve — books overprice this kind of pair.
Expected value: +$10.47 on a $20 stake.
Independence-assumption math. Same-match legs are correlated — the true joint can be higher OR lower than the product. Apply judgment before taking it.
Expected value: +$9.69 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
RC Deportivo La Coruña scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 46.3% · fair market: 43.8% · edge: +5.7%
Model probabilities RC Deportivo La Coruña 46.3% · Draw 28.3% · Elche CF 25.4% Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — RC Deportivo La Coruña 0W, 2D, Elche CF 0W (draws are common). Calibration Raw model: 52.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 46.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 46.3% vs market 43.8% (edge +5.7%, suggested Kelly +2.3% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.