Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Sevilla FC
To win
+$30.00
Total payout
$50.00
Joint prob
40.9%
Combined odds
2.50
Fair odds
2.44
Edge
+2.3%
Expected value: +$0.46 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.46 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$5.91 on a $20 stake.
Joint prob 10% lower than naïve — books overprice this kind of pair.
Expected value: +$14.31 on a $20 stake.
Independence-assumption math. Same-match legs are correlated — the true joint can be higher OR lower than the product. Apply judgment before taking it.
Expected value: +$11.97 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Sevilla FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 40.9% · fair market: 38.9% · edge: +5.1%
Model probabilities Sevilla FC 40.9% · Draw 28.3% · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 30.8% Why Sevilla FC is favoured Rayo Vallecano de Madrid's Elo (1495) is +45 over Sevilla FC (1451); high confidence. Head-to-head 5 prior meetings — Sevilla FC 0W, 5D, Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-1, 0-1, 1-1. Calibration Raw model: 42.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 40.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 40.9% vs market 38.9% (edge +5.1%, suggested Kelly +1.5% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.