SC Corinthians Paulista scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities SC Corinthians Paulista 34.3% · Draw 19.6% · CA Rosario Central 46.1% Why CA Rosario Central is favoured Elo essentially level (1524 vs 1520) — winner depends on context. Recent: SC Corinthians Paulista 4W-4D-2L · CA Rosario Central 4W-2D-1L (last 10). Goal differential per game: SC Corinthians Paulista +0.5, CA Rosario Central +1.0. Form depth SC Corinthians Paulista: avg 1.2 goals scored, 0.7 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). CA Rosario Central: avg 1.3 goals scored, 0.3 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 2/3 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~1.7 total goals (SC Corinthians Paulista 0.7, CA Rosario Central 1.0) — below 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (20%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — SC Corinthians Paulista 0W, 1D, CA Rosario Central 0W (draws are common). Last 1: 0-0. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (20% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.