Swansea City AFC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Swansea City AFC 46.3% · Draw 29.1% · Wrexham AFC 24.5% Why Swansea City AFC is favoured Swansea City AFC's Elo (1525) is +15 over Wrexham AFC (1510); low confidence. Recent: Swansea City AFC 3W-1D-0L · Wrexham AFC 1W-2D-1L (last 4). Goal differential per game: Swansea City AFC +1.5, Wrexham AFC +0.5. Form depth Swansea City AFC: avg 1.8 goals scored, 0.3 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 2/2 on the road). Wrexham AFC: avg 1.5 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 1/2 on the road). Swansea City AFC on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.3 total goals (Swansea City AFC 1.4, Wrexham AFC 0.9) — below 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 53.2% home · Platt-calibrated down to 46.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Swansea City AFC has 3 more days of rest (Swansea City AFC 21d, Wrexham AFC 18d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.