Aston Villa FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Aston Villa FC 23.2% · Draw 22.0% · Manchester City FC 54.8% Why Manchester City FC is favoured Manchester City FC's Elo (1725) is +111 over Aston Villa FC (1614); high confidence. Recent: Aston Villa FC 5W-2D-3L · Manchester City FC 9W-0D-1L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Aston Villa FC +0.5, Manchester City FC +1.6. Form depth Aston Villa FC: avg 1.9 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 3/5 on the road). Manchester City FC: avg 2.8 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (5/6 at home, 4/4 on the road). Aston Villa FC on a 3-match winning streak. Manchester City FC on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.6 total goals (Aston Villa FC 1.5, Manchester City FC 2.1) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Aston Villa FC 0W, 1D, Manchester City FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-2, 1-0, 2-1. Calibration Raw model: 27.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 23.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.