Newcastle United FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Newcastle United FC 42.4% · Draw 29.9% · Hull City AFC 27.8% Why Newcastle United FC is favoured Elo essentially level (1523 vs 1515) — winner depends on context. Recent: Newcastle United FC 1W-2D-1L · Hull City AFC 2W-2D-0L (last 4). Goal differential per game: Newcastle United FC -0.3, Hull City AFC +0.8. Form depth Newcastle United FC: avg 1.8 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 1/2 on the road). Hull City AFC: avg 1.3 goals scored, 0.5 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 1/2 on the road). Hull City AFC on a 2-draw streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.8 total goals (Newcastle United FC 1.1, Hull City AFC 1.6) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — Newcastle United FC 0W, 3D, Hull City AFC 0W (draws are common). Calibration Raw model: 46.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 42.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Hull City AFC has 1 more day of rest (Newcastle United FC 26d, Hull City AFC 27d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.