Tottenham Hotspur FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Tottenham Hotspur FC 39.0% · Draw 26.9% · Aston Villa FC 34.1% Why Tottenham Hotspur FC is favoured Aston Villa FC's Elo (1594) is +78 over Tottenham Hotspur FC (1516); high confidence. Recent: Tottenham Hotspur FC 0W-2D-2L · Aston Villa FC 1W-1D-3L (last 5). Goal differential per game: Tottenham Hotspur FC -1.3, Aston Villa FC -1.0. Form depth Tottenham Hotspur FC: avg 0.0 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 0/2 on the road). Aston Villa FC: avg 0.8 goals scored, 1.8 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 1/3 on the road). Tottenham Hotspur FC on a 2-draw streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~1.9 total goals (Tottenham Hotspur FC 0.9, Aston Villa FC 1.0) — below 2.5. Context Tottenham Hotspur FC has 1 more day of rest (Tottenham Hotspur FC 27d, Aston Villa FC 26d).