Coventry City FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Coventry City FC 36.6% · Draw 30.0% · Hull City AFC 33.4% Why Coventry City FC is favoured Hull City AFC's Elo (1515) is +21 over Coventry City FC (1494); low confidence. Recent: Coventry City FC 0W-0D-1L · Hull City AFC 1W-0D-0L (last 1). Goal differential per game: Coventry City FC -3.0, Hull City AFC +2.0. Form depth Coventry City FC: avg 0.0 goals scored, 3.0 conceded per game (0/1 on the road). Hull City AFC: avg 2.0 goals scored, 0.0 conceded per game (1/1 at home). But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 5 prior meetings — Coventry City FC 0W, 5D, Hull City AFC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-0, 0-0, 1-1. Context Coventry City FC has 1 more day of rest (Coventry City FC 7d, Hull City AFC 6d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.