US Lecce scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities US Lecce 50.5% · Draw 26.2% · AC Monza 23.3% Why US Lecce is favoured US Lecce's Elo (1380) is +68 over AC Monza (1313); high confidence. Recent: US Lecce 1W-0D-2L · AC Monza 0W-1D-2L (last 3). Goal differential per game: US Lecce -1.0, AC Monza -1.3. Form depth US Lecce: avg 0.7 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 1/2 on the road). AC Monza: avg 1.3 goals scored, 2.7 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/2 on the road). US Lecce on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.2 total goals (US Lecce 1.7, AC Monza 1.5) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 5 prior meetings — US Lecce 0W, 5D, AC Monza 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-0, 2-1, 1-1. Calibration Raw model: 58.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 50.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context AC Monza has 1 more day of rest (US Lecce 20d, AC Monza 21d).