Bologna FC 1909 scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Bologna FC 1909 49.9% · Draw 25.9% · Torino FC 24.1% Why Bologna FC 1909 is favoured Bologna FC 1909's Elo (1518) is +75 over Torino FC (1443); high confidence. Recent: Bologna FC 1909 0W-1D-3L · Torino FC 1W-0D-3L (last 4). Goal differential per game: Bologna FC 1909 -0.8, Torino FC -0.8. Form depth Bologna FC 1909: avg 0.5 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 0/2 on the road). Torino FC: avg 1.0 goals scored, 1.8 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 1/2 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.3 total goals (Bologna FC 1909 1.1, Torino FC 1.1) — below 2.5. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — Bologna FC 1909 0W, 3D, Torino FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-2, 0-0, 3-2. Calibration Raw model: 56.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 49.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Torino FC has 1 more day of rest (Bologna FC 1909 25d, Torino FC 26d).