Parma Calcio 1913 scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Parma Calcio 1913 42.2% · Draw 29.3% · Genoa CFC 28.4% Why Parma Calcio 1913 is favoured Genoa CFC's Elo (1428) is +20 over Parma Calcio 1913 (1408); high confidence. Recent: Parma Calcio 1913 0W-1D-3L · Genoa CFC 0W-1D-3L (last 4). Goal differential per game: Parma Calcio 1913 -1.0, Genoa CFC -1.5. Form depth Parma Calcio 1913: avg 0.5 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 0/2 on the road). Genoa CFC: avg 0.5 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (0/3 at home, 0/1 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.3 total goals (Parma Calcio 1913 1.3, Genoa CFC 1.0) — below 2.5. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — Parma Calcio 1913 0W, 3D, Genoa CFC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-0, 0-0, 1-0. Calibration Raw model: 45.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 42.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.