AFC Ajax scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities AFC Ajax 40.8% · Draw 28.0% · SC Heerenveen 31.3% Why AFC Ajax is favoured SC Heerenveen's Elo (1525) is +52 over AFC Ajax (1473); low confidence. Recent: AFC Ajax 1W-0D-0L · SC Heerenveen 1W-0D-0L (last 1). Goal differential per game: AFC Ajax +2.0, SC Heerenveen +1.0. Form depth AFC Ajax: avg 2.0 goals scored, 0.0 conceded per game (1/1 on the road). SC Heerenveen: avg 1.0 goals scored, 0.0 conceded per game (1/1 at home). But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — AFC Ajax 0W, 2D, SC Heerenveen 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-0, 1-1, 0-2. Calibration Raw model: 42.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 40.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context AFC Ajax has 1 more day of rest (AFC Ajax 7d, SC Heerenveen 6d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.