ADO Den Haag scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities ADO Den Haag 36.8% · Draw 30.2% · FC Groningen 32.9% Why ADO Den Haag is favoured FC Groningen's Elo (1500) is +15 over ADO Den Haag (1485); low confidence. Recent: ADO Den Haag 0W-0D-1L · FC Groningen 1W-0D-0L (last 1). Goal differential per game: ADO Den Haag -2.0, FC Groningen +1.0. Form depth ADO Den Haag: avg 0.0 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (0/1 on the road). FC Groningen: avg 2.0 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (1/1 at home). But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — ADO Den Haag 0W, 2D, FC Groningen 0W (draws are common). Last 2: 3-0, 0-1. Context ADO Den Haag has 1 more day of rest (ADO Den Haag 7d, FC Groningen 6d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.