CA Peñarol scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities CA Peñarol 46.2% · Draw 25.7% · Independiente Santa Fe 28.1% Why CA Peñarol is favoured Independiente Santa Fe's Elo (1510) is +10 over CA Peñarol (1500); low confidence. Recent: CA Peñarol 0W-3D-2L · Independiente Santa Fe 1W-2D-2L (last 5). Goal differential per game: CA Peñarol -0.6, Independiente Santa Fe -0.4. Form depth CA Peñarol: avg 0.8 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 0/3 on the road). Independiente Santa Fe: avg 1.0 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (1/3 at home, 0/2 on the road). CA Peñarol on a 2-draw streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.3 total goals (CA Peñarol 1.1, Independiente Santa Fe 1.2) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments Independiente Santa Fe has a stronger recent record (20% vs 0%) — model favours CA Peñarol on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — CA Peñarol 0W, 1D, Independiente Santa Fe 0W (draws are common). Last 1: 1-1. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.