Club Bolívar scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Club Bolívar 40.0% · Draw 25.3% · CS Independiente Rivadavia 34.7% Why Club Bolívar is favoured CS Independiente Rivadavia's Elo (1515) is +25 over Club Bolívar (1490); low confidence. Recent: Club Bolívar 1W-2D-2L · CS Independiente Rivadavia 4W-1D-0L (last 5). Goal differential per game: Club Bolívar +0.0, CS Independiente Rivadavia +1.4. Form depth Club Bolívar: avg 1.0 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 0/3 on the road). CS Independiente Rivadavia: avg 2.4 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (2/3 at home, 2/2 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.7 total goals (Club Bolívar 1.0, CS Independiente Rivadavia 1.7) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments CS Independiente Rivadavia has a stronger recent record (80% vs 20%) — model favours Club Bolívar on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.