Deportivo La Guaira FC
vs CS Independiente Rivadavia_

Most likely scorelines

• 0–2MODE+Save pick

  Prob

  15.0%

  Fair odds

  6.67

• 0–1+Save pick

  Prob

  13.2%

  Fair odds

  7.59

• 0–3+Save pick

  Prob

  11.4%

  Fair odds

  8.80

• 1–2+Save pick

  Prob

  8.7%

  Fair odds

  11.45

• 1–1+Save pick

  Prob

  7.7%

  Fair odds

  13.03

• 1–3+Save pick

  Prob

  6.6%

  Fair odds

  15.10

• 0–4+Save pick

  Prob

  6.5%

  Fair odds

  15.47

• 0–0+Save pick

  Prob

  5.8%

  Fair odds

  17.27

Deportivo La Guaira FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.

Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.

Correlation-aware combos

• Home win + BTTS

  home + btts

  +7%

  Joint prob

  3.4%

  Naïve (book)

  3.2%

  Fair odds

  29.55

• Home win + Over 2.5

  home + total_goals_2.5

  -17%

  Joint prob

  3.6%

  Naïve (book)

  4.3%

  Fair odds

  27.73

• Away win + BTTS

  away + btts

  -15%

  Joint prob

  25.6%

  Naïve (book)

  30.0%

  Fair odds

  3.91

• Away win + Over 2.5

  away + total_goals_2.5

  +15%

  Joint prob

  47.5%

  Naïve (book)

  41.1%

  Fair odds

  2.11

Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.