CD Coquimbo Unido scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities CD Coquimbo Unido 30.2% · Draw 25.4% · CD Tolima 44.4% Why CD Tolima is favoured Recent: CD Coquimbo Unido 2W-1D-1L · CD Tolima 5W-1D-2L (last 8). Goal differential per game: CD Coquimbo Unido +0.0, CD Tolima +1.0. Form depth CD Coquimbo Unido: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 1/2 on the road). CD Tolima: avg 1.6 goals scored, 0.6 conceded per game (4/5 at home, 1/3 on the road). CD Tolima on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.4 total goals (CD Coquimbo Unido 0.9, CD Tolima 1.4) — right around 2.5.