São Paulo FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities São Paulo FC 35.5% · Draw 27.0% · RB Bragantino 37.5% Why RB Bragantino is favoured RB Bragantino's Elo (1530) is +85 over São Paulo FC (1445); medium confidence. Recent: São Paulo FC 0W-4D-6L · RB Bragantino 5W-3D-2L (last 10). Goal differential per game: São Paulo FC -0.6, RB Bragantino +0.5. Form depth São Paulo FC: avg 1.0 goals scored, 1.6 conceded per game (0/4 at home, 0/6 on the road). RB Bragantino: avg 1.3 goals scored, 0.8 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.4 total goals (São Paulo FC 0.9, RB Bragantino 1.5) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — São Paulo FC 0W, 4D, RB Bragantino 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-2, 0-1, 2-2. Calibration Raw model: 32.3% home · Platt-calibrated up to 35.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.