Grêmio FBPA scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Grêmio FBPA 46.3% · Draw 29.2% · Chapecoense AF 24.5% Why Grêmio FBPA is favoured Grêmio FBPA's Elo (1461) is +14 over Chapecoense AF (1446); medium confidence. Recent: Grêmio FBPA 2W-3D-5L · Chapecoense AF 1W-3D-6L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Grêmio FBPA -0.6, Chapecoense AF -0.9. Form depth Grêmio FBPA: avg 0.9 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). Chapecoense AF: avg 1.1 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 0/6 on the road). Grêmio FBPA on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.8 total goals (Grêmio FBPA 1.4, Chapecoense AF 1.3) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — Grêmio FBPA 0W, 4D, Chapecoense AF 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-1, 1-3, 2-1. Calibration Raw model: 53.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 46.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.