Santos FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Santos FC 48.9% · Draw 28.2% · Mirassol FC 23.0% Why Santos FC is favoured Santos FC's Elo (1512) is +31 over Mirassol FC (1481); medium confidence. Recent: Santos FC 3W-3D-4L · Mirassol FC 3W-3D-4L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Santos FC +0.0, Mirassol FC -0.5. Form depth Santos FC: avg 1.6 goals scored, 1.6 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). Mirassol FC: avg 0.9 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.8 total goals (Santos FC 1.5, Mirassol FC 1.3) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — Santos FC 0W, 3D, Mirassol FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-2, 1-1, 3-0. Calibration Raw model: 56.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 48.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (40% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.