RB Bragantino scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities RB Bragantino 48.3% · Draw 27.2% · Grêmio FBPA 24.6% Why RB Bragantino is favoured RB Bragantino's Elo (1521) is +52 over Grêmio FBPA (1469); medium confidence. Recent: RB Bragantino 4W-3D-3L · Grêmio FBPA 3W-3D-4L (last 10). Goal differential per game: RB Bragantino +0.3, Grêmio FBPA -0.4. Form depth RB Bragantino: avg 1.2 goals scored, 0.9 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). Grêmio FBPA: avg 1.0 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (3/6 at home, 0/4 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.3 total goals (RB Bragantino 1.3, Grêmio FBPA 0.9) — below 2.5. Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — RB Bragantino 0W, 4D, Grêmio FBPA 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-1, 1-0, 1-1. Calibration Raw model: 54.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 48.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (45% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.