EC Vitória scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities EC Vitória 40.0% · Draw 28.1% · Botafogo FR 31.8% Why EC Vitória is favoured Botafogo FR's Elo (1516) is +50 over EC Vitória (1466); medium confidence. Recent: EC Vitória 3W-2D-5L · Botafogo FR 3W-5D-2L (last 10). Goal differential per game: EC Vitória -0.6, Botafogo FR +0.2. Form depth EC Vitória: avg 1.0 goals scored, 1.6 conceded per game (3/4 at home, 0/6 on the road). Botafogo FR: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game (2/6 at home, 1/4 on the road). EC Vitória on a 3-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.5 total goals (EC Vitória 1.1, Botafogo FR 1.5) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 5 prior meetings — EC Vitória 0W, 5D, Botafogo FR 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-0, 0-0, 0-0. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (45% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.