Mirassol FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Mirassol FC 39.1% · Draw 27.7% · CR Flamengo 33.2% Why Mirassol FC is favoured CR Flamengo's Elo (1560) is +62 over Mirassol FC (1499); medium confidence. Recent: Mirassol FC 4W-2D-4L · CR Flamengo 5W-4D-1L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Mirassol FC -0.2, CR Flamengo +1.0. Form depth Mirassol FC: avg 1.1 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (3/4 at home, 1/6 on the road). CR Flamengo: avg 1.7 goals scored, 0.7 conceded per game (4/6 at home, 1/4 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.4 total goals (Mirassol FC 0.9, CR Flamengo 1.5) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Mirassol FC 0W, 1D, CR Flamengo 0W (draws are common). Last 2: 3-3, 2-1.