SC Internacional scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities SC Internacional 42.4% · Draw 29.3% · Clube do Remo 28.3% Why SC Internacional is favoured Clube do Remo's Elo (1503) is +20 over SC Internacional (1484); medium confidence. Recent: SC Internacional 2W-4D-4L · Clube do Remo 4W-2D-4L (last 10). Goal differential per game: SC Internacional -0.2, Clube do Remo -0.1. Form depth SC Internacional: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 0/6 on the road). Clube do Remo: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (2/6 at home, 2/4 on the road). SC Internacional on a 2-draw streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.8 total goals (SC Internacional 1.4, Clube do Remo 1.4) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Clube do Remo has a stronger recent record (40% vs 20%) — model favours SC Internacional on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — SC Internacional 0W, 1D, Clube do Remo 0W (draws are common). Last 1: 1-1. Calibration Raw model: 46.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 42.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (45% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.