Chapecoense AF scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Chapecoense AF 38.6% · Draw 26.9% · EC Bahia 34.5% Why Chapecoense AF is favoured EC Bahia's Elo (1512) is +79 over Chapecoense AF (1434); medium confidence. Recent: Chapecoense AF 0W-2D-8L · EC Bahia 2W-6D-2L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Chapecoense AF -1.2, EC Bahia +0.1. Form depth Chapecoense AF: avg 0.9 goals scored, 2.1 conceded per game (0/3 at home, 0/7 on the road). EC Bahia: avg 1.2 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game (2/6 at home, 0/4 on the road). EC Bahia on a 4-draw streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.6 total goals (Chapecoense AF 1.0, EC Bahia 1.6) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments EC Bahia has a stronger recent record (20% vs 0%) — model favours Chapecoense AF on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — Chapecoense AF 0W, 3D, EC Bahia 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-0, 3-0, 0-2. Calibration Raw model: 37.6% home · Platt-calibrated up to 38.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (45% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.