CA Paranaense scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities CA Paranaense 44.7% · Draw 28.7% · RB Bragantino 26.6% Why CA Paranaense is favoured CA Paranaense's Elo (1548) is +27 over RB Bragantino (1521); medium confidence. Recent: CA Paranaense 6W-3D-1L · RB Bragantino 5W-2D-3L (last 10). Goal differential per game: CA Paranaense +0.8, RB Bragantino +0.5. Form depth CA Paranaense: avg 1.3 goals scored, 0.5 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 3/5 on the road). RB Bragantino: avg 1.5 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (3/6 at home, 2/4 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.1 total goals (CA Paranaense 1.1, RB Bragantino 1.0) — below 2.5. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — CA Paranaense 0W, 2D, RB Bragantino 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-1, 1-2, 1-0. Calibration Raw model: 49.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 44.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (40% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.