Santos FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Santos FC 43.3% · Draw 29.8% · CA Paranaense 26.9% Why Santos FC is favoured CA Paranaense's Elo (1534) is +26 over Santos FC (1508); low confidence. Recent: Santos FC 3W-3D-4L · CA Paranaense 5W-3D-2L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Santos FC -0.1, CA Paranaense +0.5. Form depth Santos FC: avg 1.6 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (3/6 at home, 0/4 on the road). CA Paranaense: avg 1.1 goals scored, 0.6 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.5 total goals (Santos FC 1.1, CA Paranaense 1.4) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments CA Paranaense has a stronger recent record (50% vs 30%) — model favours Santos FC on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Elo confidence is low (30%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Santos FC 0W, 2D, CA Paranaense 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-1, 3-0, 1-1. Calibration Raw model: 47.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 43.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (30% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.