Clube do Remo scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Clube do Remo 40.7% · Draw 29.5% · CA Mineiro 29.8% Why Clube do Remo is favoured CA Mineiro's Elo (1537) is +35 over Clube do Remo (1502); low confidence. Recent: Clube do Remo 4W-1D-5L · CA Mineiro 4W-2D-4L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Clube do Remo -0.3, CA Mineiro -0.2. Form depth Clube do Remo: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.6 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). CA Mineiro: avg 1.1 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 3/6 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.7 total goals (Clube do Remo 1.3, CA Mineiro 1.4) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Clube do Remo 0W, 1D, CA Mineiro 0W (draws are common). Last 1: 3-3. Calibration Raw model: 42.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 40.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (35% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.