RB Bragantino scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities RB Bragantino 46.9% · Draw 30.1% · SC Corinthians Paulista 23.1% Why RB Bragantino is favoured RB Bragantino's Elo (1536) is +18 over SC Corinthians Paulista (1519); low confidence. Recent: RB Bragantino 5W-2D-3L · SC Corinthians Paulista 4W-4D-2L (last 10). Goal differential per game: RB Bragantino +0.6, SC Corinthians Paulista +0.3. Form depth RB Bragantino: avg 1.6 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). SC Corinthians Paulista: avg 1.4 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). RB Bragantino on a 2-draw streak. SC Corinthians Paulista on a 2-draw streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.5 total goals (RB Bragantino 1.4, SC Corinthians Paulista 1.2) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — RB Bragantino 0W, 1D, SC Corinthians Paulista 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-0, 2-1, 1-2. Calibration Raw model: 54.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 46.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (35% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.