EC Vitória scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities EC Vitória 43.0% · Draw 27.6% · SE Palmeiras 29.3% Why EC Vitória is favoured SE Palmeiras's Elo (1552) is +55 over EC Vitória (1497); low confidence. Recent: EC Vitória 3W-3D-4L · SE Palmeiras 5W-3D-2L (last 10). Goal differential per game: EC Vitória -0.2, SE Palmeiras +0.9. Form depth EC Vitória: avg 1.1 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (3/4 at home, 0/6 on the road). SE Palmeiras: avg 1.7 goals scored, 0.8 conceded per game (2/6 at home, 3/4 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.5 total goals (EC Vitória 1.0, SE Palmeiras 1.5) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments SE Palmeiras has a stronger recent record (50% vs 30%) — model favours EC Vitória on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — EC Vitória 0W, 2D, SE Palmeiras 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 5-1, 0-0, 2-2. Calibration Raw model: 44.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 43.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (35% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.